Who Said No? Voting Behaviour in the 2016 Bolivian Constitutional Referendum

What explains the sudden rise and fall of Latin America’s leftist governments du- ring 21st century? Two competing interpretations have been put forward: either citizens vote positionally or retrospectively. This paper aims to shed light on this debate by analyzing 2016 constitutional referendum in Bolivia. The results our investigation voting behaviour are most supportive a retrospective interpretation. Dissatisfaction with state democracy Bolivia having experienced regional protests both shown be strongest predictors “No” vote. support claim that valence issues significantly determine new democracies, yet they also suggest assessments governmental performance extend further than mere economic conditions.